The Stock Market Doesn't Care Who's President

The likely outcome of our most recent presidential election--assuming no significant changes to voter recounting in several swing states--is that Joe Biden will be president in January 2021.

This can set investors on edge, and even leads some to consider switching their portfolios to safer investments. On one hand, this is an understandable response. There are valid concerns about rising federal income tax rates, increased regulation, further economic slowdown due to Covid-19, or rising inflation, all of which could slow the economy and hurt markets.

But history shows a different story. A recent Wall Street Journal article noted “From 1929 through 2019, one party controlled both chambers of Congress and the presidency in 45 of those years. The S&P 500 on average rose 7.45% during those years, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index was up 30 times and down 15 times.

“In the other 46 years when there was a split government, the index climbed 7.26% on average, rising 29 times, falling 16 times and remaining unchanged once.”

In other words, the stock market tends to increase over time, regardless of who is president.

Some may feel that this time it’s different, and that adjustments to one’s investment plan are justified now whereas they may not have been before. We would be wise to remember that no one has a crystal ball. The market’s performance is impossible to anticipate over long stretches of time, even by well-paid Wall Street professionals with the latest software.

Take 2020 as a most recent example. In March, as fear of the unexpected economic consequences of Covid-19 began to set in, the stock market dropped significantly. Not only was this event impossible to perfectly predict, but so was the market’s subsequent rise from late March through last week. Not even the most complex algorithm can predict these things.

Uncertainty like this can be frustrating. When it comes to saving for something as important as retirement, we want to be able to make well-informed decisions. It may feel like a “no brainer” to get out of the market when the future ahead looks even more uncertain. But history shows those decisions tend to be the wrong ones. Instead, investors would be wise to stay the course.